Final Equation Adds Drama

Newcastle Herald

Thursday August 14, 2008

PETER STERLING - LEAGUE 2008

WHILE I'm not a huge fan of a top-eight finals system, there is no doubt that the month leading into the play-offs is full of tension and drama.

Going into round 23, we have 13 of the 16 clubs still mathematical chances of surviving the domestic rounds. Of course, when some teams are relying on mathematics, then the writing is on the wall that they can start planning for an early trip away.

In this category are both Parramatta and the Gold Coast, who sit one win out of the top eight, but in reality it is much, much more.

Neither side are going well enough to win the majority of their remaining games, and they also suffer from negative differentials.

The Titans have had a brave second year but have succumbed to injuries to their most influential players, and their flying start has again stalled to a disappointing end.

Also disappointing has been the Eels' effort this season. They started poorly, didn't improve mid-season and, despite last week's win over the Roosters, have not inspired all year.

They can hurt other contenders in the next four weeks, but that won't see them competing in September.

We can also put a line through Penrith and not just on the back of last weekend's embarrassment in the national capital.

The Panthers have looked sensational in patches but have lacked the necessary overall consistency. Conceding 74 points put them well into the red in their for-and-against, and further injury problems can only hurt their cause.

The good news is they have the perfect opportunity to bounce back at home on Saturday night against the struggling Dogs. The bad news is that they take on Melbourne, Manly and the Warriors in New Zealand over the following three weeks.

In my opinion then, it is really 10 teams who have a shot at finals football. Melbourne, Manly, Cronulla, the Roosters and Brisbane have five of those spots sewn up, which leaves the other five vying for the last three positions.

In this situation those sides are looking at important areas to help their cause. Firstly, clubs need to be masters of their own destiny. There is rarely a satisfactory outcome for teams who find themselves relying on the results of others.

The Raiders, Dragons, Knights, Tigers and Warriors all sit on 24 points and can be certain that an undefeated finish will see them through to the top eight. Their fate is entirely in their own hands.

Secondly, sides need to be in good form and gathering some degree of momentum. Last year it was the Warriors and the Rabbitohs who finished with a flurry to put themselves in the right place.

The New Zealanders lost just one of their last eight to finish fourth, and Souths won four of their last five to grab seventh position.

The best-placed sides in that department at the moment are Canberra and Newcastle, who have both tasted defeat just once in the past five weeks.

Coincidentally, they meet on Sunday, which sets up a momentous confrontation for both camps.

When sides in contention face each other, there is of course the added bonus that the winner not only picks up the sweet reward of victory but lands a substantial blow against the vanquished. In essence, it is a four-point turnaround with the two points gained at the expense of two points dropped.

For Newcastle, it shapes as a must-win as they have the tougher finish of the two. The Knights face Melbourne and Brisbane in their last two rounds, while the Raiders play the current bottom three teams to complete their season.

Thirdly, all contenders are boosted if they are healthy. At this stage, fingers remain crossed that players avoid injury and don't spend valuable time on the sideline.

What has been particularly impressive is how Canberra have handled the loss and the drama surrounding star playmaker Todd Carney.

His absence could easily have disrupted their campaign, but to their credit they have matched their physical preparation with a strong mental approach.

It has helped that young Marc Herbert has proven to be a talented and confident performer.

For their chief rivals, the cause will be helped if the likes of Danny Buderus, Kurt Gidley, Mark Gasnier, Ben Hornby, Benji Marshall, Robbie Farah and Steve Price are all available for selection.

Finally, it again seems certain that for-and-against will ultimately determine the composition of our eight.

In 2007, it was the Tigers who missed the boat by having an inferior differential compared to Brisbane. Both clubs recorded 11 wins and 13 losses, but the Queenslanders finished with a plus 35 for-and-against to the Tigers' minus 20.

The New Zealand Warriors are very precariously placed this season with a minus 95. That's a long way behind Canberra plus 72, St George Illawarra plus 63, Newcastle plus 57 and the West Tigers at plus 38.

The weekend result for Penrith showed how quickly this can change, but quite simply it needs to be a case of "if you don't win, make sure you don't get beaten by much".

All things considered, Sunday's clash between Newcastle and Canberra is a mammoth meeting in relation to finals football.

Both teams have every right to be confident on the back of recent showings, but there is huge pressure on this particular result.

The side that prevails will take an enormous step towards finishing in the top eight. For the side that loses, that step could prove just as significant in the other direction.

Sterlo can be heard with David and Tanya

at 7.20am every Friday on 102.9 KO FM

© 2008 Newcastle Herald

Back to News Index | Back to Home